What are the odds of being a baseball player?

Answer 1

Here's an approach based on mathematics, using travel/tournament baseball teams in New Jersey as a proxy. These youth leagues - AAU, Babe Ruth, American Legion, etc. - contain the elite players and serve as feeders to scholarships and minor league contracts.

Let's assume NJ is an average state as regards major league representation. This is reasonable given climate considerations. Florida and California probably have more since they play year 'round, while states with harsher climates than those of NJ probably see less participation in elite youth leagues.

Presently there are 20 MLB players who were born in New Jersey. The average baseball career is about five years per statistical studies. That means each year, four players born in New Jersey make the MLB. (It's rough, but it's a reasonable proxy. Work with me.)

In our NJ township we have 100,000 people as our population, and for each age group defined as year of birth, 50 kids play travel/tournament baseball. The population of NJ is about 8 million. Do the math and that yields a defensible estimate that 4,000 kids born in a given year are playing travel/tournament baseball in New Jersey.

So, for each year of birth, 4000 kids playing in these elite leagues will ultimately compete for the average of four MLB spots that will open up each year for New Jersey candidates.

So, sports fans, that means that if you achieve a spot on a travel/tournament baseball team - which is no easy task - your odds of making the MLB are...drum roll...1 in 1000.

That's depressing given that a recent survey showed that 10% of parents who have a kid playing on one those teams expects their son to make the MLB.

Answer 2

In 2008 there were 2.6 million participants in Little League.

There are 26 major league teams, and on Opening Day each may have only 25 players on their roster. Let's say injuries and minor league try-outs double the number of people who play on a MLB teach each year -- that's a grand total of 1300 MLB players each year.

Which means only one out of every 2000 kids who played Little League in 2008 will play in the majors.

To get a sense of perspective, there are about three million households in the US with financial assets over a million dollars -- meaning a kid today has a far better chance of becoming a millionaire than a MLB player.

Answer 3

e odds of a high school athlete's becoming a pro football, Baseball, or Basketball player are 837 to 1.

Answer 4

The odds of a high school athlete's becoming a pro football, baseball, or basketball player are 837 to 1.

Answer 5

1 in 97 if you play highschool or College Baseball.

Answer 6

the chances of becoming a pro athlete in baseball is 1 in a million, literally! you have to be really really really really good to be a pro athlete in baseball

Answer 7

The odds of making it to the pros are about 1-500,000

Answer 8

25,000 to 1 including minor leagues.

Answer 9

1 in 16000