Gaelic Football's origins would be older. Variations of football would have been brought to Australia, including early versions of Soccer, Rugby and Gaelic Football. An Australian Rules type of game would have been played in the 1840s. That would be much later than the earliest variations of Gaelic Football, which can go back in some forms to the 1600s and in even earlier forms to the 1300s.
Answer 2
In terms of "codified" rules, the Australian game is the older of the two: Australian football rules having been officially drawn up and codified in 1958 and Gaelic in 1887 ... by the way, soccer was codified in 1861, which was also after Australian football.
Rugby was mainly played within the Rugby School for its first decade or two. Rugby had just begun spreading in Britain at the point Australian football was being codified in Melbourne.
As it was the intent of the prime inventors of Aussie Rules to come up with a game of their own invention, it is doubtful that any of these games carried very far into the original idea of Australian football at all. Even before the 1959 on-paper formation of the game, various Aussie Rules football games had already been occurring over the previous 20 years.
Conclusion: Despite all the speculation, As people have been throwing, catching and kicking balls and other objects around for 100's of years as part of a natural course of recreation with one another and playing various football-type informal games, it is Highly doubtful any of these more formalized codes had anything much to do with the formation of Australian football at all!
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