Oh, dude, that's a tough one. I mean, statistically speaking, the competitor with the lowest skill level, weakest strategy, and maybe a bit of bad luck would be the least likely to win. But hey, anything can happen, right? Like, maybe they'll pull off a miracle or something.
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This depends on the contest. Usually the person with the lowest rating, the lowest confidence or ranking will be least likely to win. A lot of factors go into this.