Yes, because in building a Hall of Fame career the ballplayer establishes a large fan base, and no, by the time the player is elected to the Hall of Fame the fan base is already established. Non Hall of Fame ballplayers could build a large fan base as well.
The value of any collectible item is determined by a simple formula. Supply and Demand. When the number of items available on the market (supply) is higher than the number of collectors in the market, the value goes down. When the number of items available on the market is lower than the number of collectors, the demand is greater, and the value goes up.
By the time a ballplayer is elected to the Hall of Fame, he has already established himself as a such, and will have a large fan base. The popularity of the player has a greater effect on the value of memorabilia, if the player makes the hall of fame or not. A lager fan base translates to a greater demand for the memorabilia. If the player does not make the hall, the player will still basically have the same fan base. If the player makes the hall, it might call attention to that player, and prices might temporarily go up, but will level out as time goes on.
The value will always rely on the number of collectors in the market for that player. A good example would be Thurman Munson. Not in the Hall of Fame, Munson has a large fan base, and his memorabilia is highly sought after, and more valuable than some Hall of Famer's. If he were to be elected into the HOF next year his memorabilia might rise in value slightly because of the attention, but as time goes on it will level out again.
Goose Gossage, Dick Williams, and Billy Southworth are going into the Hall of Fame later this month. You will see this will have no effect on the value of their memorabilia. The number of collectors for these players are set, and will not change overnight because they were elected into the Hall of Fame.
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