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# What is the probability that the killers will win there first game if they only win one out 5 games?

Updated: 10/27/2022

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Q: What is the probability that the killers will win there first game if they only win one out 5 games?
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The probability of winning two games with the same probability of 0.8 can be calculated by multiplying the probability of winning the first game (0.8) by the probability of winning the second game (0.8). Therefore, the probability is 0.8 * 0.8 = 0.64, or 64%.

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Farmer Vaughn played in 2 games at first base for the Cincinnati Kelly's Killers in 1891, starting in none of them. He made 8 putouts, had no assists, and committed no errors, equivalent to 0 errors per game (estimate based on total games played in). He had one double play.

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Suppose the result for each game is independent of the results of earlier games and the probability of a win in any game is the constant, p, then the answer is16C3*p13*(1-p)3 where 16C3 = 16*15*14/(3*2*1)However, the assumption of constant and independent probability of a win is rubbish.Suppose the result for each game is independent of the results of earlier games and the probability of a win in any game is the constant, p, then the answer is16C3*p13*(1-p)3 where 16C3 = 16*15*14/(3*2*1)However, the assumption of constant and independent probability of a win is rubbish.Suppose the result for each game is independent of the results of earlier games and the probability of a win in any game is the constant, p, then the answer is16C3*p13*(1-p)3 where 16C3 = 16*15*14/(3*2*1)However, the assumption of constant and independent probability of a win is rubbish.Suppose the result for each game is independent of the results of earlier games and the probability of a win in any game is the constant, p, then the answer is16C3*p13*(1-p)3 where 16C3 = 16*15*14/(3*2*1)However, the assumption of constant and independent probability of a win is rubbish.

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