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It's difficult to answer because no one knows the true number of holes-in-one shot each year.

However, the generally accepted chances for an amateur hole-in-one at 1:12,750. Since each hole-in-one is an independent occurrence and a previous hole-in-one does not affect the probability of another hole-in-one occurring, the answer can be found by multiplying 12,750 by the four occurrences.

Or, p(4)=1:12,750 x 12,750 x 12,750 x 12,750 or 1:26,426,566,406,250,000. This number will vary greatly depending on which initial hole-in-one probability used. (Numbers range from 2,756 for PGA Tour players to over 30,000 for amateurs, giving a range between 1 in 57 trillion and 1 in 810 quadrillion).

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11y ago
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Q: What are the odds of a golfer making 4 holes in one during his lifetime?
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