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Pakistan
Best chance for Pakistan to qualify is to beat Australia and then hope India lose to South Africa. In that case, Pakistan and Australia will go through to Semi Final irrespective of Run Rates.
If Pakistan and India both win on Tuesday then three teams (India, Pakistan and Australia) will get tied on 4 points each, top 2 teams with better Run Rate will qualify.
If Pakistan lose to Australia by a close margin like 2 or 3 runs, then they must hope that South Africa beat India by a close margin too. In that scenario, Pakistan and Australia will be through to the Semis.
India
Best chance for India is: Pakistan lose to Australia and then they beat South Africa, without Run Rate coming into play, India and Australia will be through to the Semis. If Pakistan beat Australia, then India will have to beat South Africa by a margin that takes them above Pakistan or Australia in Run Rate.
India can also qualify even after losing to South Africa. That is possible if Australia thrash Pakistan by a good margin, and India does not lose to South Africa by a bad margin.
South Africa
They are not out yet as there is backdoor entry left for them. Their only chance to qualify for Semis is: Australia beat Pakistan, and then they beat India by a margin which is enough to take their Run Rate above India and Pakistan. If Pakistan win on Tuesday, South Africa will be knocked-out straight away.
Australia
It is crazy to see that Australia are still not confirmed for the Semis. If they beat Pakistan, they will be through. But if they lose to Pakistan by a huge margin, like 50 odd runs, then they must hope South Africa beat India or India does not win against South Africa by a huge margin.
If it rains on Tuesday.
If both the matches are washed-out then Pakistan and Australia will qualify for Semi Final. If this happens, India will regret not chasing the target against Pakistan just 1 ball earlier.
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